The forecast is now final and will no longer update.

2024 Presidency Forecast

Swing States

Here, the probabilities for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump to win are listed for every swing state.

Arizona

Forecasted Vote Share: 47.2%

Forecasted Vote Share: 51.5%

Georgia

Forecasted Vote Share: 48.5%

Forecasted Vote Share: 50.6%

Michigan

Forecasted Vote Share: 51.0%

Forecasted Vote Share: 47.8%

Nevada

Forecasted Vote Share: 49.0%

Forecasted Vote Share: 49.5%

North Carolina

Forecasted Vote Share: 48.3%

Forecasted Vote Share: 50.6%

Pennsylvania

Forecasted Vote Share: 49.4%

Forecasted Vote Share: 49.5%

Wisconsin

Forecasted Vote Share: 50.7%

Forecasted Vote Share: 48.2%

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