Embedded Files
The forecast is now final and will no longer update.
Prediction for all States
In the spreadsheet, the forecast's prediction for every state are listed.
Prediction 2024.xlsxExplanation of the Spreadsheet
In the spreadsheet, the columns have the following meaning:
D-Pred: forecasted vote share for Kamala Harris in this state
R-Pred: forecasted vote share for Donald Trump in this state
D-Prob: probability of Kamala Harris winning this state
R-Prob: probability of Donald Trump winning this state
TP: probability of this state being the tipping point
SI: the forecasts's state importance index
D-PCW: chance of Kamala Harris winning the presidency in the scenarios where she wins this state
R-PCW: chance of Donald Trump winning the presidency in the scenarios where he wins this state
PCW: chance that the winner of this state wins the presidency
The forecasted vote shares and the state power index have been manually calculated by the forecast. The other data points have been determined by simulating the election 5,001 times.
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